REIT Metrics & Pricing Signals

Proprietary data. This page includes licensed data and is not available for public use.

Companion Excel Workbook: Industrial REIT Metrics

Data: CRE42 industrial REIT composite (component filings); Green Street, May 2026; FRED (10-year UST).

This page covers the pricing signals that the public market attaches to the same composite. Where the fundamentals page traced rents, supply, and values, this page reads the entry yield: the composite implied cap rate against Treasuries, the equity yield that leverage adds on top, and how public pricing has led private-market cap rates through the cycle. All figures use the CRE42 industrial REIT composite on a single-REIT-equivalent (TEV-weighted) basis.

Composite Implied Cap Rate vs. 10-Yr UST (2016–2025)

Composite stabilized implied cap rate versus 10-year US Treasury yield with spread, 2016-2025

Sources: CRE42 industrial REIT composite (component filings; CRE42-derived implied cap rate); FRED series DGS10, year-end.

The composite implied cap rate compressed from 6.65% in 2016 to a 3.79% low at the 2021 peak, then reset to 6.01% in 2022 and finished 2025 at 6.38%.

The 10-year UST drove the reset: from a 0.93% low in 2020 to 3.88% in 2022 and 4.58% in 2024, ending 2025 at 4.18%.

The spread over Treasuries compressed from 4.2 pp in 2016 to 1.7 pp in 2023, the decade low, then recovered to 2.2 pp in 2025, still well below the 2016–2020 average of roughly 3.9 pp.

The thinner spread implies the market is pricing continued NOI growth rather than demanding the historical risk premium in the entry yield.

Composite Cap Rate vs. Leveraged Equity Yield (2016–2025)

Composite implied cap rate versus leveraged equity yield, 2016-2025

Source: CRE42 industrial REIT composite (component filings); CRE42-derived measures.

The leveraged equity yield fell from 8.28% in 2016 to a 4.04% low at the 2021 peak, then rebuilt to 7.51% by 2025.

Leverage contribution (equity yield less cap rate) collapsed at peak pricing: 1.63 pp in 2016 down to 0.25 pp in 2021, as debt added almost nothing to equity returns at the top.

Positive leverage has partially restored, with the contribution running roughly 1.1–1.2 pp in 2024–2025, about two-thirds of the 2016 level.

Public vs. Private Industrial Cap Rates (2016–2025)

Composite implied cap rate versus Green Street private-market nominal cap rate and 10-year UST, 2016-2025

Sources: CRE42 industrial REIT composite (public); Green Street nominal cap rate, 51-market weighted average, 4Q values, May 2026 (private); FRED DGS10.

Public pricing moved further and faster in both directions. The composite implied cap rate bottomed at 3.79% in 2021 against 3.78% for the Green Street private-market average, then repriced to 6.01% in 2022 while the private series was still at 4.65%.

Private pricing followed with a lag, grinding higher each year from the 2021 trough to 5.43% in 2025.

The two remain within about 95 basis points by 2025 (public 6.38% vs. private 5.43%), supporting the use of REIT pricing as a real-time signal for private-market values.

Notes

Composite figures are a stabilized-TEV-weighted blend of EastGroup, First Industrial, and STAG, constructed to read like a single mid-sized industrial REIT; see the CRE42 Industrial REIT Composite page for methodology. Implied cap rate = annual NOI / stabilized total enterprise value. Leveraged equity yield = (NOI less net interest) / stabilized equity market cap. Spread over UST and leverage contribution are in percentage points. The Green Street private series is a 51-market weighted-average nominal cap rate at 4Q; the public and private measures are constructed on different bases and are compared for direction and level, not as identical instruments.

Companion workbook. industrial-reit-metrics.xlsx – CRE42 industrial REIT composite annual model (FY2016–FY2025), per-REIT and vs-market tabs, and market comparison data.

REIT Metrics & Pricing Signals

Composite Implied Cap Rate vs. 10-Yr UST (2016–2025)

Composite Cap Rate vs. Leveraged Equity Yield (2016–2025)

Public vs. Private Industrial Cap Rates (2016–2025)

Notes

Related Topics