Industrial REIT Metrics & Current Cycle, 2016–2025

Proprietary data. This page includes licensed data and is not available for public use.

Companion Excel Workbook: Industrial REIT Metrics

Industrial Real Estate 10-Year Cycle: Highlights and Summary

Three-panel chart: CoStar market asking rent, CPI and prime rate, and composite gross NOI multiple, 2016-2025

Sources: CoStar, March 2026 (rent); FRED series CPIAUCSL and MPRIME (inflation, prime rate); CRE42 industrial REIT composite (component filings), CRE42-derived multiple.

U.S. industrial real estate was in full recovery and expansion mode in 2016. The sector had recovered with the broader economy after the global financial crisis, and e-commerce growth through the mid-2010s added steady demand for warehouse and distribution space. Rent growth accelerated and occupancy reached record levels following the Covid-19 pandemic, pushing industrial REIT multiples and valuations to cyclical highs. Developers reacted with record supply, delivering from 2022 through 2025, as demand gradually softened. National occupancy fell roughly 360 basis points and annual rent growth slowed from 10% to 2%. At the same time, the 2022 inflation spike pushed borrowing costs sharply higher, and valuations reset. To read these movements through public-market data, CRE42 builds a three-REIT composite (EastGroup, First Industrial, STAG) whose construction and cross-section are detailed on the CRE42 Industrial REIT Composite page; the combined figures are referenced throughout this cluster. In 2026 demand is recovering, ongoing deliveries have slowed and construction starts have experienced a dramatic reduction, all pointing to a wide operational recovery.

Cycle Inflection Point: 2020–2022

The highlighted box in the chart above isolates the time period from 2020 to 2022, illustrating the interplay of macro-economic forces. On the bottom portion of the chart, we can see a rapid rise and fall in valuation multiple, also illustrated below and reflected in Total Enterprise Values (chart below). This valuation movement is unusual in the sense that it all occurred along with consistently rising NOI and revenue numbers across the board within the industry. The rapid rise from 2020 through 2021 was based on low and falling debt and inflation rates along with expectations for continuing NOI increases. Industrial rents, revenues and NOI did, in fact, continue to increase, but valuations were reduced dramatically in 2022 due to rapidly rising inflation and the expectations (later confirmed) of increasing debt rates.

Debt Metrics Overpower Operating Metrics Part I: NOI (Unlevered)

Composite annual NOI with YoY growth labels and stabilized TEV, with gross NOI multiple, 2016-2025

Source: CRE42 industrial REIT composite (component filings); CRE42-derived measures. Composite figures on a single-REIT-equivalent (TEV-weighted) basis.

NOI grew 58% from 2021 to 2025 ($367M to $581M), compounding through the correction. Stabilized TEV fell 6% over the same period ($9.7B to $9.1B): four years of income growth produced no enterprise-value growth.

The reconciliation is the multiple: the gross NOI multiple compressed from 26.4x to 15.7x, almost all of it in 2022 (26.4x to 16.6x). The 2025 multiple corresponds to a 6.4% implied cap rate, against 3.8% at the 2021 peak.

Debt Metrics Overpower Operating Metrics Part II: Leveraged CF

Composite leveraged cash flow with YoY growth labels and stabilized market cap, with leveraged multiple, 2016-2025

Source: CRE42 industrial REIT composite (component filings); CRE42-derived measures. Composite figures on a single-REIT-equivalent (TEV-weighted) basis.

Leveraged property cash flow grew 56% from 2021 to 2025 ($320M to $498M), roughly in line with unleveraged NOI (+58%). Stabilized market cap fell 16% ($7.9B to $6.6B), a deeper decline than TEV (-6%): leverage amplified the equity-value hit.

The leveraged multiple compressed from 24.8x to 13.3x, a slightly larger reset than the unleveraged 26.4x-to-15.7x move.

Notes

Composite figures are a stabilized-TEV-weighted blend of EastGroup, First Industrial, and STAG, constructed to read like a single mid-sized industrial REIT; see the CRE42 Industrial REIT Composite page and the companion model workbook for methodology. Gross NOI multiple = stabilized total enterprise value / annual NOI; leveraged multiple = stabilized equity market cap / leveraged property cash flow. All dollar figures are aggregate composite, not per share.

Companion workbook. industrial-reit-metrics.xlsx – CRE42 industrial REIT composite annual model (FY2016–FY2025), per-REIT and vs-market tabs, and market comparison data.